For the first time in past 2 years: Russian army hit a wall in March, making no territorial gains
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Russia’s military made virtually no territorial progress along Ukraine’s frontline in March - for the first time since 2023, according to Agence France-Presse’s analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War, ISW. The Russian army’s advance has been slowing since late 2025, partly due to localized Ukrainian breakthroughs in the country’s southeast. In total, Russian forces captured just 23 square kilometers during the month and even lost ground in certain areas. This estimate does not include infiltration missions beyond the frontline or gains claimed by Russia that the ISW has neither confirmed nor rejected. In January, Russian forces advanced by 319 square kilometers, followed by 123 square kilometers in February—at the time, already marking the slowest monthly gain since April 2024. By March, however, their progress dropped even further, reaching its weakest level since September 2023. The Institute for the Study of War, ISW, linked this overall deceleration not only to Ukrainian counteroffensive actions, but also to restrictions affecting Russian communications, including a reported ban on the use of Starlink terminals in Ukraine and Kremlin measures limiting access to Telegram. The messaging platform, widely used in Russia and particularly common among soldiers at the front, has reportedly become largely inaccessible in recent months due to government-imposed blocks. Consistent with February, Russian forces also experienced setbacks in the southern part of the frontline, especially in the zone between the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions, where they continued to lose territory. Earlier, the ISW stated in its March report that over the past month, along the roughly 1,200-kilometer front of the Russo-Ukrainian war, Ukrainian forces regained more territory than they lost - about 27 square kilometers net for the first time since at least October. Syrsky emphasized that real progress is measured by the amount of territory reclaimed, noting that since January, Ukrainian forces have liberated around 480 square kilometers. He added that this figure surpasses the achievements recorded during the 2025 Dobropillia counteroffensive. The report also highlights that March 2026 marked the second consecutive month in which Russian forces ended up losing more territory than they gained in Ukraine, following the Kremlin’s invasion in February 2026. At present, Russia still holds roughly one-fifth of Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory. It further notes that the last time Ukraine achieved two straight months of net territorial gains was in July and August 2025, when Ukrainian troops carried out an incursion into Russia’s border Kursk region, briefly controlling about 1,300 square kilometers - an area comparable in size to cities like Rome or San Antonio. Syrsky said that Ukrainian troops are currently focused mainly on conducting counterattacks aimed at denying Russian forces the initiative and stopping them from launching large, coordinated offensives, while also seeking to inflict losses in order to gradually exhaust Russian troops.
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